Analysis and Outlook of China’s Soybean Supply and Demand Situation

Abstract

Soybeans are crucial to national food security and public nutritional health. With the rapid economic and social development, China’s soybean consumption has continued to grow rapidly, but production capacity has increased slowly, resulting in a huge gap between supply and demand. Not only has the import dependence remained high at over 80%, but there is also the risk that more than 90% of imports come from American countries such as Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. This paper analyzes the supply and demand situation of China’s soybeans in detail, applies the CAMES model to forecast and study China’s soybean production, consumption, imports, and prices over the next 10 years, providing some reference for a comprehensive understanding of the current and future supply and demand situation of China’s soybeans.